LONDON. KAZINFORM – Experts of the British research institutes shared their thoughts on the latest state of the nation address by President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev «Economic course of a Just Kazakhstan», Kazinform correspondent reports from London.
Senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at International Institute for Strategic Studies Nigel Gould-Davies called the state of the nation address by President Tokayev ‘a wide-ranging and ambitious speech’.
«President Tokayev was open about the scale of the challenges, both national and global, that Kazakhstan faces. There was no sense of complacency. On the contrary, his speech expressed frank criticism of ways that the country has not made the progress it should,» Gould-Davies noted.
These, according to him, include a highly-profitable banking system that does not serve the needs of the real economy; low investment rates; failure to develop Kazakhstan’s mineral resources in recent years, despite enormous potential; the continued resistance of monopolies to effective regulation; a creative sector and a tourist sector that lag behind.
«So, President Tokayev identified many critical issues and showed that he understood what problems the country must tackle. To do so, he announced his intention to establish a «new paradigm for Kazakhstan’s economic development», with «projects that will genuinely transform our nation». As always with reform, the reality lies in implementation,» he added.
«In this light, the President made two specific announcements that are especially significant. Firstly, he announced plans «to initiate the privatization of all non-core assets», starting with the launching of IPOs in 2024 for Air Astana and QazaqGaz. This will be an important test of the government’s commitment to reform,» the expert stressed.
«Secondly, President Tokayev announced that a referendum on nuclear power would be held. This strikes a balance between the strategic importance of planning for a post-carbon future and the need to be sensitive to public opinion, given the tragic legacy of the Semipalatinsk nuclear testing site,» he added.
In his turn, associate fellow in the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House Timothy Ash drew attention to President Tokayev’s dissatisfaction with the National Bank of Kazakhstan.
«I guess the main interest from the market, and investors, is the change at the NBK. The market had been encouraged by the former governor’s more orthodox approach and focus on fighting inflation – which is still a key problem given it is still high at 13%,» he emphasized.
In his opinion, people worry that Tokayev is telling the NBK to move the focus from inflation to growth, and that could suggest lower rates and a weaker currency.
«I think there does need to be more focus on structural reform to raise the longer term growth outlook for the economy. But I worry that lower rates and a weaker currency might be short term fixes which just create more longer term problems, in particular higher inflation,» the associate fellow at Chatham House said.
Professor of International Politics at the University of Lincoln and Editor of Central Asian Survey Rico Isaacs pointed out that the state of the national address ‘put the emphasis on national security and its relationship to several issues not just defence, but the economy, water and energy’. «But, in general, the President continues to pedal the same message regarding the multiple fronts upon which the country faces internal and external challenges,» he noted.
«Kazakhstan faces the challenge of the over-bureaucratization of the state which tends to impede the implementation of initiatives. In this direction, the establishment of five new ministries is interesting, suggesting an attempt at least to administratively address some of the most important challenges head on,» Rico Isaacs said.
«The question is whether the government will be willing to draw on the expertise of well-qualified non-state organisations, something much required, especially in the new Ministry of Water Resources, an issue the region has been grappling with for over three decades,» the expert underlined.
«Of course, the referendum on nuclear power is the most eye-catching aspect of the speech, but like any referendum in Kazakhstan is largely a tool of legitimation for the President to gather perceived public approval for moving ahead with nuclear power, a tricky issue given the complexity and trauma of Kazakhstan’s nuclear past,» he said in conclusion.
Recall that President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev delivered his latest state of the nation address on September 1.
Source : Kazinform