Russia has been so preoccupied with unfriendliness lately, so it’s no surprise that a Kremlin-linked think tank has come up with a way to turn Moscow’s neighbors from best friends into sworn enemies.
But is the rating of 14 countries’ friendliness to Russia published in February by the National Research Institute for the Development of Communications (NIIRK) based on reliable data or simply on grievances?
The analytical study “Friendly rating of the communication regimes of neighboring countries” is the second of its kind in the two-year history of NIIRK , which, judging by its very modest presence on the Internet, does nothing else.
Based on the study, these neighboring countries can see how their “friendliness” towards Russia has risen or fallen since Moscow’s unprovoked bloody invasion of Ukraine last year, as well as NIIRK’s recommendations on how to respond to these trends.
There is nothing surprising about the top (Belarus) and bottom (Ukraine) countries, but some other changes seem quite remarkable.
Why, for example, Georgia, with which Russia fought in 2008, is now, according to the authors, a “relatively friendly” country for Moscow?
And why is Kazakhstan, the leader of last year’s rating, still friendly, but classified as “fluctuating”?
Although NIIRK is young and little known, the institute, according to the Russian edition of The Moscow Post, “is not without connections.” In a Feb. 13 article, the Moscow Post noted a collaboration agreement struck at last summer’s annual economic forum in St. Petersburg between NIIRK and one of Russia’s national libraries.
On its website, NIIRK also lists a number of state think tanks in Russia and allied countries as partners and boasts of a supervisory board made up of retired KGB officers.
The group calls its mission “the development of a multilateral dialogue of peoples, cultures, religions, states, international scientific and educational organizations [and] civil society to strengthen peace and harmony.”
” UNFRIENDLY ” – A CATEGORY WITH A Sliding Scale
Relations between the countries have been of great concern to Moscow lately.
In March, as Russia faced an unprecedented flurry of sanctions in response to its invasion, President Vladimir Putin ordered the creation of an official registry of “unfriendly countries” that has since been used as the basis for retaliatory sanctions.
NIIRK claims that its research is based on an analysis of 10 different types of communications with Russia from neighboring countries.
They range from foreign policy communications to “media communications”, “educational communications” and other equally vague categories, as well as the policies of neighboring countries towards their Russian-speaking populations.
The think tank claims to have used more than 60 indicators to assess “communication regimes” in Russia’s 14 neighbors, but did not respond to RFE/RL’s request for clarification on the methodology.
Summing up the changes in attitude towards Russia in 2022 compared to 2021, NIIRK stated that “the polarization of friendliness and unfriendliness of communication regimes has intensified.”
If in Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania “the conditions for the development of communications have worsened (up to a ban)”, then for some communications in a number of friendly regimes, for example, in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, which “previously were quite restrained”, these conditions have improved, notes NIIRK.
Numerically, the biggest change has been in Estonia, where friendliness towards Russia has fallen to -51.8 from a previous reading of -10.7 in 2021, as Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has become one of the most vocal critics of the Kremlin’s incursion in Europe. The two countries recently sent ambassadors to further cement the hostility.
Ukraine’s rating has fallen from -43.8 in 2021, when it was considered friendlier to Russia than Latvia, to -83.6 in 2022.
MEDIA INTERVENTION
The scope of NIIRK’s research echoes what experts say is the Kremlin’s increasingly intrusive approach to dealing with its closest foreign partners.
Kazakhstan, which did not follow the example of Belarus and did not support Russia’s war against Ukraine, is perhaps the most obvious example of this trend.
Just last month, an initiative by Kazakh businessmen to set up a yurt as a humanitarian aid in Bucha, a city north of Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, sparked diplomatic tensions between Astana and Moscow.
The official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, appealed to the Kazakh authorities with a request to confirm Astana’s non-involvement in the delivery of the yurt “in order to avoid damage to the Russian-Kazakh strategic partnership and alliance.”
Zakharova’s colleague, Kazakh Foreign Ministry spokesperson Aibek Smadiyarov, told RFE/RL that he “doesn’t see any problem,” adding that the state cannot forbid its citizens to help Ukraine.
Roskomnadzor, the Kremlin’s media oversight body, has been actively attacking the media in neighboring countries, demanding the removal of materials covering the war, which Moscow continues to call a “special military operation”, threatening a blockade in Russia.
For Arbat.media in Kazakhstan, these requirements went even further: the publication was subpoenaed in the city of Vladimir in Russia because of the material about the war.
The journalists ignored the unprecedented challenge, and in this they were supported by Kazakh officials.
NIIRK emphasized Kazakhstan’s status as a friendly country, but noted that “inertia” could no longer be relied upon to reproduce positive sentiment towards Russia.
“Now it will take efforts, perhaps special projects and programs to develop communications,” the group recommended, without going into details.
Countries with more tightly controlled media and social media fared much better in this year’s rankings.
Turkmenistan has largely ignored Russia’s war in Ukraine for much of 2022, but has recently launched propaganda campaigns criticizing Western support for Ukraine.
Ashgabat posted the biggest positive growth in the rankings, jumping from +14.5 to +47.1 in 2022, according to NIIRK.
Uzbekistan, where bloggers and the media are reportedly discouraged from covering the war, has moved from seventh to third place in the 2022 rankings, leaving behind Armenia, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan.
Georgia also showed positive dynamics, making a jump of 20 points, overtaking Moldova and reaching ninth place in the ranking. NIIRK noted the improvement in conditions for the “development of economic communications” in the year when Georgia refused to join the international sanctions imposed on Russia.
Some of NIIRK’s remarks, such as the alleged censorship of social media content about Russia in neighboring countries, seem deeply ironic given the state of press freedom in Russia itself.
The group also expressed concern that religious institutions, “which in 2021 remained channels of friendly communication even in unfriendly countries, are being pressured by the authorities and forced to make political choices.” In Russia itself, a Russian Orthodox priest was fined for his comments and stance on the war, and the head lama of Russia’s predominantly Buddhist Republic of Kalmykia was declared a “foreign agent.”
The composition of NIIRK’s supervisory board may raise questions about the friendliness rating as a serious academic exercise – as many as five of the seven board members have worked in the Russian and Soviet security services in the past.
Among them is NIIRK director Vladislav Gasumyanov, who, in an article published last week, called the rating “a benchmark both for Russia and for other countries.”
Neighboring states, he said, benefited from Russia’s historically “paternalistic relationship,” which he contrasted with the “colonial relationship” promoted by Europe and the United States.
Now they have “an occasion to reflect, to decide on priorities and to synchronize watches. Time cannot be turned back,” Gasumyanov warned.
Source : Радио Азаттык