Moscow probably prefers to see as its main partner in Astana not Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, but another person, Western media write this week. The foreign press is also looking for an answer to the question of how the war in Ukraine affects the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and they note the growing influence of Japan in Central Asia.
THE KREMLIN WANTS TO DRIVE THE CHORUS TO ITS SIDE AND IS LOOKING FOR AN ALTERNATIVE TO TOKAEV?
Kazakh political scientist Ahas Tazhutov wrote last week in an article for Eurasia Review that Moscow was “promoting” former high-ranking official and current CSTO Secretary General Imangali Tasmagambetov as an alternative to President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. Continuing this theme , Tazhutov ponders why the Kremlin is seeking to change its main partner in Astana and why it is betting on Tasmagambetov.
Analyzing the first part of the question, Tazhutov recalls that Kazakhstan has committed itself to comply with the sanctions imposed by the West against Russia. But, on the other hand, according to the media, “Kazakhstan has become the most convenient hub for circumventing anti-Russian sanctions in 2022-2023.” At the same time, Moscow and Astana have made great efforts to create the appearance of a strong divergence of views on the Ukrainian issue between them, the author believes. At the same time, he notes that Western political scientists draw information about the situation in the country, decisions and actions of Astana mainly from Russian media and Russian-language publications in Kazakhstan. In this situation, experts forget that Russian TV channels and Internet resources dominate the information space of Kazakhstan, and the Kremlin controls the country’s internal affairs.
“Kazakhstan has absolutely no control over more than half of the television network and almost the entire book market, not to mention the Internet,” the Russian website Lenta.ru wrote in 2021 . “Now the information environment is quite friendly to the authorities of Kazakhstan solely thanks to the support of Moscow, which protects the republican elite.” According to the author who cited this quote, it follows from this that the image of Astana in the media is in the hands of Russia, which, obviously, pursues its own interests first of all.
According to Tazhutov, it is beneficial for Moscow to impose the opinion that Kazakhstan is moving away from the Kremlin, and Russia is carrying out information attacks against its neighbor in retaliation. “But it’s no secret to anyone that all this is nothing more than an illusion,” continues Akhas Tazhutov.
Assistant Secretary of the Treasury Elizabeth Rosenberg, who recently visited Kazakhstan, warned of possible secondary sanctions against Kazakh companies and banks if they are found to be helping Russia circumvent sanctions.
It can be concluded that the times when it was possible to throw dust in the eyes of the world, claiming a “conflict” between Tokayev and Putin and “strict adherence to sanctions” have sunk into oblivion, Tazhutov emphasizes. The Kremlin is now thinking about how to turn Kazakhstan from a “hidden ally” into an “open one” and win it over to its side in the confrontation with the West.
“Astana, which can no longer help Russia to circumvent sanctions and at the same time still does not sit side by side with Moscow and Minsk in anti-Western trenches, does not seem to suit the Kremlin,” the author is convinced. — Against the background of recent events in and around Ukraine, Putin, by and large, can hardly offer the head of Kazakhstan anything but to step forward and stand shoulder to shoulder with him and [authoritarian Belarusian leader Alexander] Lukashenko in the fight against the collective West “.
But Tokayev is unlikely to agree to this, Tazhutov believes. That is why the Kremlin sees the need to change priorities and prefers to see another person as its main partner in Astana. Moreover, Moscow is taking into account the growing disillusionment of Kazakh society with Tokayev’s policies and skepticism about his reforms.
Turning to the second part of the question – why, according to Tazhutov’s suggestion, Russia is betting on Tasmagambetov – the author gives two arguments. He notes that Imangali Tasmagambetov, as the Reuters news agency wrote six years ago , “has long been considered one of the most likely candidates for a successor and he has support at home, especially in the oil-rich western regions.” The second argument is that Tasmagambetov, along with Tokayev, are the only high-ranking Kazakh politicians who are really well known in the Kremlin.
WAR IN UKRAINE AFFECTS SCO. KAZAKHSTAN HAS NO SECURITY GUARANTEES
Stephen Blank, a researcher at the American Institute for Foreign Policy Studies, in an article on the website of the Jamestown Foundation , asks whether the war in Ukraine will change the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
The SCO was considered an alliance between Russia and China, created to ensure security in Central Asia. But Russia already dominates the region, exerting influence, including through the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine appears to be changing the picture, Blank writes.
In February 2023, Nurgali Bilisbekov, then deputy chairman of the Kazakh National Security Committee, called on SCO members to strengthen cooperation to counter threats. According to the author, given the conflicting statements and threats of the Russian elite against Kazakhstan and territorial claims, “Astana needs to openly call for the activation of the participation of other members of the SCO in ensuring security in order to balance against Moscow.”
Kazakhstan does not lean towards China, continuing its multi-vector policy, Blank notes. And Russia’s invasion of Ukraine showed that Moscow can no longer be seen as a reliable guarantor of security. This means that not only the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, but also the CSTO “are compromised and cannot give effective guarantees,” Blank said. The CSTO members, like the SCO members, are often involved in mutual disputes, the author writes, citing the periodically erupting conflicts on the border of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and the unresolved Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict over Karabakh as an example.
“This is directly related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and reflects the international consequences of the war, going far beyond Europe. Obviously, the future security structure of Central Asia is becoming very problematic, and the basis on which Kazakhstan calls for cooperation is increasingly fragile. While no one is certain that this will bring about change, such fragility is often a harbinger of bad news,” Blank concludes.
THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF JAPAN IN CENTRAL ASIA
Japan is rarely mentioned in discussions about the major powers influencing Central Asia, although Tokyo has made significant progress in certain areas of cooperation, and this is its main advantage, American expert Paul Goble writes in an article for the Jamestown Foundation .
According to Goble, Japan was able to show itself as a single entity with the region, ensuring that the countries of the region perceive it as a close, and not a foreign power. In addition, the world’s third economy is a separate success story that combines Western capitalist and democratic values, allowing Japan to promote these values more effectively.
Tokyo is interested in the implementation of small projects of “soft power”. It does not create tension, and for this reason, there is no conflict of interest with the two major players in the region – China and Russia.
Goble cites an article by Marina Dmitrieva, an international relations scholar at Russia’s Far Eastern Federal University, who studies Japan’s role in Central Asia. She writes that “Japan is positioning itself as an alternative to China and Russia for Central Asia,” but its assistance is aimed at developing schools and transport infrastructure. Japan, adhering to “liberal values”, recognizes “the special importance of a common Asian identity with the countries of the region,” the researcher believes.
When Japan began to build relations with the countries of Central Asia in the 1990s, it promoted the ideas of liberalism, democracy and human rights. These items are still on the agenda of the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), but after Tokyo failed to achieve significant results in this area, the country has revised its position and gives priority to the economic and humanitarian sphere.
Researcher Dmitrieva writes that Japan prioritizes cultural diplomacy, humanitarian aid, and development support, things that other players in Central Asia do not pay much attention to. However, other commentators in Russia are skeptical about Japan’s actions, stressing that it is “an ally of the United States and an opponent of Putin’s war in Ukraine.”
“It is likely that some in Beijing are just as suspicious. And this can lead to conflicts between Tokyo and the two powers (Russia and China. – Ed .). But currently, Japan is gradually expanding its influence in Central Asia, which is likely to have long-term consequences, even if the West is now largely ignoring it,” Goble concludes.
Source: azattyq